13-Week Cash Flow Forecast Template (Direct Method)

13-Week Cash Flow Forecast: [Organisation name] [Cycle, e.g. CF13-2027-01]

Direct-method weekly cash forecast for the next 13 weeks: opening cash and facilities, receipts by source, disbursements by category, the weekly roll from opening to closing cash, liquidity headroom against the policy minimum, variance to the prior forecast, key assumptions, risks and mitigating levers. Written as original practice guidance for corporate treasury and finance teams; no accounting standard prescribes the format, and lenders often set their own content in facility agreements, waivers or restructuring terms. Replace every [bracketed] value and every row marked Example. This is a document format, not financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice.

Document control

Approvals

Revision history

Contents

1. Purpose, basis and ownership
2. Opening cash and facilities
3. Receipts forecast
4. Disbursements forecast
5. Weekly roll
6. Liquidity headroom against the minimum
7. Variance to the prior forecast
8. Key assumptions
9. Risks, downside case and mitigating levers
10. Process, controls and sign-off
11. Glossary and references

1. Purpose, basis and ownership

Example: Corvid Commerce Group prepares the 13-week forecast every week as its primary short-term liquidity tool. It shows whether cash plus undrawn committed facilities stays above the treasury policy minimum, tells the treasurer when to draw or repay the revolving credit facility, and gives the CFO early warning when a lever (deferring capex, accelerating collections) is needed. The group is not in financial difficulty and no lender requires the forecast today; it is shared with the facility agent only on request.

1.1 Roles

1.2 When a lender or adviser requires the forecast

Lenders usually ask for a 13-week forecast in three situations: when a covenant is close to breach and the borrower requests a waiver or an amendment, when a facility is being refinanced under pressure, and in a formal restructuring where a financial adviser reviews the business for the lenders. In each case the forecast stops being an internal management tool and becomes information the borrower has promised to deliver. Treat it accordingly:

• Agree the format, the reporting day, the variance thresholds that need explanation and the definition of liquidity with the lenders in writing, and keep to them every week.
• Keep a clean distinction between the base case you believe and any case you are asked to run for the lenders. Label every version.
• Expect the reviewing adviser to test opening balances against bank statements, receipts against customer history and payments against payment runs. The controls in section 10 exist so that this review finds nothing.
• Never change the forecast to hide a shortfall. A forecast that later proves to have been optimistic on purpose destroys the trust that a waiver depends on.

When no lender requires the forecast, keep the same discipline anyway. The organisations that cope best with a sudden lender request are those that already run the forecast every week.

2. Opening cash and facilities

2.1 Opening cash by entity

Check: 14,900 + 3,200 + 3,000 + 5,600 + 1,300 = 28,000. 2,580 / 0.86 = 3,000; 6,160 / 1.10 = 5,600; 37,050,000k / 28,500 = 1,300k.

Check: 27,650 + 500 - 150 = 28,000.

2.2 Committed facilities

Committed undrawn facilities counted in headroom: 20,000 (FAC-002). The treasury policy counts a committed facility only while more than 12 months remain to its maturity. FAC-002 therefore qualifies up to 2027-06-29 and drops out on 2027-06-30, when exactly 12 months remain. That date is inside the horizon of every cycle from CF13-2027-14 (weeks ending 2027-04-09 to 2027-07-02) onwards, which is why refinancing by 2027-06-30 is planned in Liquidity and Funding Plan (finance/liquidity-funding-plan).

Trapped cash is deducted from headroom. At 2026-12-31 the group deducts EUR 1,000k: a balance held by Corvid Commerce Vietnam LLC (CC-VN) that cannot be remitted or swept to the group under local rules (check local law), the same amount the Treasury Policy, the Annual Budget and the covenant certificate exclude. The rest of the Vietnam balance (300) is used for CC-VN's own payments in the horizon (section 5.2). Keep the deduction at 1,000 in every week unless the local finance lead confirms a change, and deduct any other balance that cannot be moved.

3. Receipts forecast

Check: 22,700 + 11,500 + 2,600 + 400 = 37,200.

3.1 Building the collection curve

A collection curve converts what is billed into what is received, week by week. Build it from history rather than from contract terms: take the last six to twelve billing cycles, measure the share of each cycle's value received in the first week after billing, the second week and so on, and average the shares. Keep separate curves for groups that behave differently, for example card customers, direct debit customers, enterprise customers on invoice terms, and marketplaces with their own settlement calendars. Revisit the curve every month and whenever something structural changes, such as a new payment provider, a price rise or a change in the mix of customers.

Watch for three common distortions. Month-end and quarter-end customers often pay in batches, so a weekly average hides peaks. Public holidays move bank settlement days, which shifts receipts between weeks without changing the total. Customers under stress pay later than their history suggests, so overlay judgement from credit control on any customer that is on watch.

Guidance for each source:

• Recurring receipts. Forecast from the billing calendar and the collection curve (share of billed value collected in week 1, 2, 3 after billing). Update the curve monthly from actual collections.
• Large single receipts. List any receipt above [EUR 250k] individually with the customer, invoice and the person who has confirmed the date.
• Overdue balances. Do not forecast overdue receivables older than [60] days unless credit control has a written payment commitment.
• Non-operating receipts. Asset sales, tax refunds, grants and insurance claims go in only when the amount and date are confirmed in writing; otherwise show them as upside in section 9.

4. Disbursements forecast

Check: 12,900 + 11,600 + 4,200 + 2,600 + 750 + 2,600 = 34,650. Debt service: lease 3 x 150 = 450; interest 30,000 x 4.0% / 4 = 300; total 750. The April lease falls on 2027-04-07 (the business days are 1, 2, 5, 6 and 7 April) and therefore in W14, outside this horizon. Taxes: VAT 3 x 600 = 1,800 plus corporate income tax instalment 800 = 2,600.

Items checked and not in this horizon (Example): dividend (paid after the annual general meeting in May), revolving facility commitment fee (paid in June and December), annual insurance premium (paid in July), sales bonuses (paid in April after the year-end close is approved).

4.1 Payment calendar discipline

Most of the disbursement forecast is a calendar exercise. Collect the dates once, keep them in one place and update them as soon as anything changes: payroll dates per country, the supplier payment-run day, statutory tax due dates (VAT, payroll withholding, corporate income tax instalments), rent and lease dates, debt service dates from each facility agreement, insurance renewals and any annual or quarterly item such as bonuses or licence renewals. When a due date falls on a weekend or public holiday, record the actual bank date, not the nominal one.

Supplier payments deserve the most attention because they combine a known part (invoices already approved, due on known dates) with an estimated part (invoices not yet received for goods and services already ordered or expected). Forecast the known part from the accounts payable due-date report and the estimated part from open purchase orders and the cost forecast. Agree with accounts payable that no payment is released outside the scheduled run without treasury being told, otherwise the forecast cannot be trusted at the weekly level.

5. Weekly roll

The roll for every week $t$ follows one identity, and liquidity headroom adds undrawn committed facilities that meet the policy test:

where $C_t$ is closing cash, $R_t$ receipts, $D_t$ disbursements, $T_t$ trapped cash (1,000 in every week of this cycle, see section 2.2), $F_t^{\text{undrawn}}$ undrawn committed facilities with more than 12 months to maturity at the end of week $t$, $H^{\min}$ the policy minimum, and $M_t$ the margin over the minimum.

Example: Corvid Commerce Group, CF13-2027-01, EUR thousand. Policy minimum headroom $H^{\min}$ = 35,000; undrawn committed facility = 20,000 and trapped cash = 1,000 in every week, so headroom = closing cash + 19,000.

Checks on the roll:

• Column totals agree to sections 3 and 4: receipts 37,200; disbursements 34,650.
• Net flow over 13 weeks: 37,200 - 34,650 = 2,550; closing cash 28,000 + 2,550 = 30,550, equal to the W13 closing balance.
• Trough: W04 closing cash 28,250 (first payroll week); headroom 28,250 - 1,000 + 20,000 = 47,250; lowest margin over the minimum 12,250 in W04.
• Opening headroom at 2026-12-31: 28,000 - 1,000 + 20,000 = 47,000, equal to the figure in the Treasury Policy and the covenant certificate.
• Weekly receipts by source are in section 5.1; their totals agree to section 3.

5.1 Receipts by source and week

Example: EUR thousand. This split drives the downside case in section 9.2 and the variance analysis in section 7.

Check: subscriptions W01 to W08 = 13,800 and W09 to W13 = 8,900, total 22,700; marketplace 700 + 12 x 900 = 11,500; services 2,600, including the disputed 400 invoice due in W03; other = Vietnam VAT refund 200 (W07) and deposit interest 200 (W13). The first week of each month carries the card billing run; the later weeks carry enterprise invoices on 30-day terms.

5.2 Entity view

Check: receipts 200 + 20,100 + 6,500 + 8,800 + 1,600 = 37,200; disbursements 1,050 + 17,000 + 5,900 + 8,300 + 2,400 = 34,650; transfers 3,600 - 3,100 - 600 - 500 + 600 = 0; holding 14,900 + 200 - 1,050 + 3,600 = 17,650; Vietnam 1,300 + 1,600 - 2,400 + 600 = 1,100; group closing 17,650 + 3,200 + 3,000 + 5,600 + 1,100 = 30,550. Holding disbursements are the term loan interest (300) and the share of payroll, opex and tax paid centrally (750).

6. Liquidity headroom against the minimum

The trapped-cash deduction is part of the base case, not a sensitivity: headroom at the W04 trough is 28,250 - 1,000 + 20,000 = 47,250. If the whole Vietnam opening balance of 1,300 were treated as trapped, it would be 46,950, and the minimum would still be met.

The headroom result in this cycle depends entirely on FAC-002. Cash on its own ranges from 28,250 to 33,250 and never reaches the 35,000 minimum, so the moment the facility stops qualifying the test fails unless the new facilities are signed (Liquidity and Funding Plan section 5.2 shows shortfalls of 9,950 and 10,950 at the 2027-06-30 and 2027-09-30 quarter ends). Report this dependency in every cycle until the refinancing closes, and state in the sign-off (section 10.3) which facilities the headroom figure relies on and until when they qualify. If a lender definition differs from the treasury policy definition, report both and use the lender definition for any covenant statement in Covenant Compliance Certificate (finance/covenant-compliance-certificate).

7. Variance to the prior forecast

7.1 Actual against forecast for the week just closed

Example: the next cycle (CF13-2027-02) reports week W01 actuals against this forecast. EUR thousand.

Check: 3,070 - 1,730 = 1,340; 28,000 + 1,340 = 29,340; timing (280) plus permanent (130) = (410). A negative variance reduces cash, whether it comes from lower receipts or higher payments.

Forecast accuracy for receipts, measured each week:

Track accuracy by line and by lag (one week ahead, four weeks ahead, eight weeks ahead). Target (Example): at least 90% one week ahead and 80% four weeks ahead for total receipts.

7.2 Bridge from the prior forecast

Check: 30,550 - 130 + 0 + 300 - 150 = 30,570; 30,570 + 1,750 = 32,320. April VAT (around 2027-04-12) falls in W15 and enters the next cycle.

8. Key assumptions

Currency effect: a 10% weaker USD against EUR reduces US receipts net of US payments in this horizon by about (8,800 - 8,300) x 10% = 50 in EUR terms, because the US entity is close to self-funding over 13 weeks; the effect on the USD balance held is larger: USD 6,160k at 1.21 instead of 1.10 is EUR 5,091k, about 510 less.

9. Risks, downside case and mitigating levers

9.1 Risks and upsides

9.2 Downside case

Example: marketplace payouts stop for four weeks (W05 to W08, 3,600 delayed and received in W09 to W12 on top of the forecast payouts), subscription receipts come in 10% below forecast in every week, and the services customer in dispute never pays the 400 invoice due in W03 (CFR-002). No lever is applied in the case itself; levers are shown separately in section 9.3.

Check: subscription receipts W01 to W08 total 13,800 (section 5.1), so the 10% shortfall to W08 is 1,380; with the marketplace delay (3,600) and the unpaid invoice (400), cash at W08 is 1,380 + 3,600 + 400 = 5,380 below the base, and 29,150 - 5,380 = 23,770. By W13 the marketplace delay has reversed, leaving the full-horizon subscription shortfall (10% of 22,700 = 2,270) and the invoice (400): 30,550 - 2,670 = 27,880. Headroom deducts the trapped 1,000 and adds the undrawn 20,000 (23,770 - 1,000 + 20,000 = 42,770); the minimum is still met with a margin of 7,770.

9.3 Mitigating levers

Do not plan to stretch supplier payments beyond agreed terms: it damages supply, may breach late-payment rules in the EU (Directive 2011/7/EU) and the UK, and may be visible to lenders through supplier finance programmes.

10. Process, controls and sign-off

10.1 Weekly calendar

10.2 Controls

10.3 Sign-off statement

Example: "I have reviewed the 13-week cash flow forecast CF13-2027-01. Opening cash agrees to the bank statements at 2026-12-31. The forecast reflects management's best estimate at the date of approval. Headroom stays above the treasury policy minimum in every week of the base case; it relies on the undrawn revolving facility FAC-002, which qualifies until 2027-06-29, and the refinancing that replaces it is tracked in the Liquidity and Funding Plan." Signed [@cfo], YYYY-MM-DD.

When the forecast is given to lenders, check the information undertakings in the facility agreement for the required content, frequency and any certification wording, and have legal counsel review the first lender version.

10.4 Common failure modes

• Indirect forecast dressed as direct. Weekly figures produced by dividing a monthly profit forecast by four show no payroll trough and no tax peak. Rebuild from calendars and collection curves.
• No actuals comparison. A forecast that is never compared with the bank does not improve. Section 7 is not optional.
• Optimism on receipts, completeness gaps on payments. Receipts tend to be forecast too early and payments forgotten. Check every category against the same weeks of last year for missing items.
• Ignoring currency and location. A group total in EUR can look healthy while one subsidiary cannot pay its payroll. Keep the entity view in section 5.2.
• Silent changes. Every change to a prior week's forecast needs a line in the bridge, so that readers can see whether the outlook improved because of business or because of assumptions.

11. Glossary and references

11.1 Glossary

11.2 References

Standard and licence note

Structure aligned with common corporate treasury and turnaround practice for direct-method 13-week cash flow forecasts; no standard prescribes the format. IAS 7 and the guidance of the Association of Corporate Treasurers are cited by name only and no text from them is reproduced. The EU Late Payment Directive is cited by number as public law. Corvid Commerce Group, its facilities and every figure are fictional. This template is original text written for this collection. Check the current versions of cited sources and the terms of your own facility agreements before use. Template licence: MIT.