Theory of Change Template

Theory of change: problem, long-term goal, outcomes pathway diagram, interventions, assumptions, indicators, evidence

NonprofitStandardtheory change diagramUpdated Oct 20, 2026

How to use: Use it to design or explain how a programme leads to lasting change. Start from the long-term goal and work backwards through preconditions. Main pitfall: hidden assumptions; state one for every link you are unsure of and monitor it.

Preview

Theory of Change: [Programme or organisation name]

A theory of change explains how and why a set of activities is expected to lead to a long-term goal: the problem, the goal, the pathway of preconditions and outcomes, the interventions, the assumptions behind each link, indicators for every outcome and the evidence base. Based on common practice in international development and nonprofit programme design. Replace every [bracketed] value and every row marked Example.

Field	Value
ToC ID	[TOC-2026-01]
Programme	[Programme name]
Organisation	[Organisation name]
Geography	[Example: three districts in [Region]]
Time horizon	[Example: 5 years, YYYY to YYYY]
Owner	@name
Version	[0.1]
Status	[Draft / Validated with stakeholders / Approved]
Last updated	YYYY-MM-DD

1. Problem statement

[Example: In [Region], 42% of children finish primary year 3 unable to read a simple paragraph (national learning assessment, YYYY). Root causes identified in community consultations and district data include few books at home, large class sizes (average 58 pupils), limited teacher training in early reading, and parents who are unsure how to support reading.]

Root cause	Evidence	Within our influence?
Example: Few age-appropriate books at home	Household survey, n = 600, YYYY	Yes
Example: Teachers lack early-reading methods	District training records	Yes, with partners
Example: Class sizes above 50	Ministry statistics	No; context factor
[Cause]	[Source]	[Yes / Partly / No]

2. Long-term goal

[Example: By YYYY, children in the three target districts complete primary year 3 reading with comprehension at the national benchmark.]

Target population: [Example: about 24,000 children aged 6 to 9 in 120 schools].

3. Outcomes pathway

The diagram shows how intermediate outcomes build towards the long-term goal. Arrows mean "is a precondition for".

3.1 Outcome descriptions

ID	Outcome	Level	Who changes	Timeframe
OC-1	Example: Teachers use structured reading methods in class	Short-term	Teachers	Year 1 to 2
OC-2	Example: Children have regular access to levelled books	Short-term	Children, schools	Year 1
OC-3	Example: Parents read or tell stories with children at least weekly	Short-term	Parents	Year 1 to 2
OC-4	Example: Children practise reading daily	Intermediate	Children	Year 2 to 3
OC-5	Example: Reading fluency and comprehension improve	Intermediate	Children	Year 3 to 4
[OC-N]	[Outcome]	[Level]	[Group]	[Timeframe]

4. Interventions

ID	Intervention	Targets outcome	Delivered by	Scale
IN-1	Example: 5-day teacher training plus monthly coaching visits	OC-1	[Organisation] with district education office	480 teachers
IN-2	Example: Classroom libraries and take-home book bags	OC-2	[Organisation]	120 schools
IN-3	Example: Monthly parent reading sessions in local language	OC-3	Community volunteers	6,000 families
[IN-N]	[Intervention]	[OC-N]	[Who]	[Scale]

5. Assumptions

ID	Assumption	Link	Evidence strength	How monitored
AS-1	Example: Head teachers allow class time for reading practice	OC-1 to OC-4	Medium: 9 of 12 pilot schools did	School visits each term
AS-2	Example: Parents with low literacy can support reading through storytelling	OC-3 to OC-4	Medium: published studies in similar contexts	Parent survey
AS-3	Example: Teachers are not transferred mid-year in large numbers	IN-1 to OC-1	Low: transfers rose last year	District records
[AS-N]	[Assumption]	[Link]	[Strength and source]	[Method]

External factors outside the programme's control: [Example: school closures due to weather or health emergencies; changes to national curriculum].

6. Indicators per outcome

Outcome	Indicator	Baseline	Target	Data source	Frequency
OC-1	Example: % of observed lessons using the structured method	8%	70%	Classroom observation tool	Termly
OC-2	Example: Books borrowed per child per month	0.3	4	Library logs	Monthly
OC-3	Example: % of parents reporting weekly reading or storytelling	21%	60%	Household survey	Yearly
OC-4	Example: Minutes of reading practice per child per day	5	20	Time-use sample	Yearly
OC-5	Example: Correct words per minute, year 3	18	45	Oral reading fluency assessment	Yearly
Goal	Example: % of year 3 pupils at national benchmark	58%	80%	National assessment	Every 2 years

7. Evidence base

Link or approach	Evidence	Source	Strength
Example: Structured pedagogy improves early reading	Multiple randomised evaluations in low-income settings	[Systematic review, Author, Year]	Strong
Example: Book access alone has limited effect	Mixed results without teaching support	[Study, Year]	Moderate
Example: Parent engagement in local language	Promising, few rigorous studies	[Study, Year]; own pilot YYYY	Emerging
[Link]	[Evidence]	[Source]	[Strong / Moderate / Emerging]

Evidence gaps and learning questions:

[Example: Does coaching frequency below monthly still change practice?]
[Example: Which parent-session format works best for fathers?]

8. Review and use

Used for: [programme design, monitoring framework, funder reporting, staff induction]
Review cycle: [Example: yearly learning review each [month]; immediate review if an assumption fails]
Participants in review: [staff, partners, community representatives]

Version	Date	Author	Change
0.1	YYYY-MM-DD	@name	First draft from design workshop
[N]	YYYY-MM-DD	@name	[Change]

Standard and licence note

Based on common theory-of-change practice used in international development and nonprofit programme design (backwards mapping from a long-term goal, preconditions, assumptions and indicators). Template licence: MIT.

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